TEXAS SEVERE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
STORM SPOTTER LIVE METOPS FORT WORTH TX
MON NOV 10 2008...CENTRAL TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES IN A ZONE OF WAA
OVER CENTRAL OK/KS AS OF MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM IN THIS ZONE AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF AN MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EJECTING NEWD
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. FARTHER S...A RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS SPREADING NWD FROM S INTO CENTRAL
TX...W OF A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ROUGHLY CLL TO PSX.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SLOW SURFACE HEATING...THOUGH CLOUD
BREAKS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FROM S INTO CENTRAL TX.
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE
EWD INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND MID-UPPER SPEED MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE EWD TO CENTRAL TX FROM NRN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECASTER - THOMPSON/GRAMS NOAA SPC NORMAN OK
